The Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team learned its assignment for the NCAA Tournament on Sunday evening, drawing a No. 4 seed in the East Regional.
Duke is the No. 1 seed, followed by UConn at No. 2, Michigan State at No. 3, Kansas at No. 4, St. John’s at No. 5 and Louisville at No. 6.
Here’s a look at the Jayhawks’ potential path to the 2026 Final Four and whether they received lucky or unlucky draws along the way:
Round of 64
KU’s first-round opponent: No. 13 seed Cal Baptist.
Lucky or unlucky draw? Mostly unlucky Cal Baptist ranks No. 106 nationally in KenPom and looks to be the second-best of this year’s 13-seeds. Bart-Torvik ranks Cal Baptist even higher, slotting them at No. 96 nationally.
For reference, KenPom ranks KU 21st, and BartTorvik has KU 22nd.
The chance of an upset here is low. Although the Lancers rank No. 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency, their offense is terrible by most metrics. Cal Baptist ranks No. 302 in effective field goal percentage and No. 318 in 2-point percentage (47.7%). They also play at the 17th-slowest tempo in the field.
On top of that, Cal Baptist has lost to three Big 12 teams this year, including BYU by 31 points.
KU’s offense isn’t great, but the Lancers most likely won’t have the offensive firepower to pull off the upset. They do, however, have one benefit, in that the Lancers are located about 100 miles from San Diego, where this game will be played.
KU opens as a 13.5-point favorite, according to Draft-Kings. Of the four 4-13 matchups, only No. 4 seed Alabama (-12.5) has worse odds.
The location and strength of opponent, particularly defensively, makes KU mostly unlucky here.
Round of 32
Potential opponent (if Vegas odds hold): No. 5 seed St. John’s Lucky or unlucky draw? Mostly unlucky If KU gets this matchup, the Jayhawks will face the second-toughest No. 5 seed. KenPom ranks St. John’s No. 17, while BartTorvik rates the Red Storm No. 15.
This St. John’s team could cause major issues for the Jayhawks. KU has struggled against bigger teams this season, and the Red Storm rank No. 61 in average player height and No. 28 in offensive rebounding percentage (35.9).
Not to mention, St. John’s is red-hot. The Red Storm have won six straight games, including defeating UConn to win the Big East Tournament.
There are positives for KU, though, including that the St. John’s offense isn’t great. The Red Storm rank No. 44 in effective field goal percentage and No. 44 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency.
But Kansas would likely be the underdog in this No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup.
Sweet 16
Potential opponent (if Vegas odds hold): No. 1 seed Duke Lucky or unlucky draw? Neither lucky nor unlucky Duke is the No. 1 overall seed in the bracket. KenPom and BartTorvik have the Blue Devils at No. 1. And Kansas lost to Duke in nonconference play, albeit without star guard Darryn Peterson.
The Blue Devils are a balanced team, ranking No. 4 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
So why isn’t this an “unlucky” draw?
There is a slight silver lining for KU. It’s unclear how Duke will look without starting point guard Caleb Foster (broken foot). On top of that, who knows if starting center Patrick Ngongba II will play, as he missed the ACC Tournament with a foot issue.
Duke, which ranks No. 8 in 2-point percentage, would test the Jayhawks’ interior defense. And KU would have to keep the Blue Devils off the boards, with Duke ranking No. 8 in offensive rebounding percentage (38.1).
Duke has few flaws, but it does rank No. 109 in 3-point percentage (35.1%).
If the Jayhawks make it this far, they’ll have a chance. Kansas played the Blue Devils close and made life difficult for Duke freshman Cameron Boozer, largely thanks to Flory Bidunga’s defense.
On top of that, there might be some extra motivation for Peterson. He told The Star that he never got a scholarship offer from the Blue Devils, and he wasn’t happy about it at the time.
For KU to pull off the upset, it’ll require one of the best games KU has played all season. But considering the familiarity and the injury factor, this isn’t the worst-case scenario for the Jayhawks.
Elite Eight
Potential opponent (if Vegas odds hold): No. 2 UConn Lucky or unlucky draw? Lucky If the Jayhawks make it this far, there’s a good chance they’d face the easiest No. 2 seed of the group. On top of that, UConn has looked mortal as of late. The Huskies have lost two of their last four games.
The two squads are familiar with each other, as KU lost to UConn (without Peterson) in non-conference play.
KenPom ranks UConn No. 11, while BartTorvik ranks the Huskies No. 9. The Huskies boast a top-10 defense, but their offense ranks just No. 30 by KenPom. And they rank No. 189 in turnover percentage.
The Huskies would test Kansas inside. They shoot just over 57% on 2s, ranking No. 33 nationally. And UConn is in the top 15 in defending both 2- and 3-pointers.
But Peterson and Tre White are capable of making shots and putting pressure on UConn, which may struggle to make it to this point given the team’s recent form.
The main issue for KU: The Jayhawks will have a harder time getting here than they most likely would in this specific game.
KU’s NCAA Tournament Path
By most metrics, the Jayhawks landed in the most difficult NCAA Tournament region.
Kansas coach Bill Self noted how good all of these teams are, from the top seed Duke to a red-hot St. John’s team — and even a UConn squad that was in contention for a 1-seed for much of the year.
That said, KU matches up relatively well with a lot of these teams, even if the Jayhawks are an underdog in every game past the first round.
The Jayhawks have shown they can win with the cards stacked against them, such as defeating Arizona without Peterson or winning at Texas Tech, but they’ve also lost plenty of winnable games, which is how they landed on the No. 4 seed line.
It’s unclear which KU team will show up in the NCAA Tournament, but things aren’t trending in the right direction. And Self had said that himself. KU’s offense has been a mess, particularly down the stretch of the season, too.
For the Jayhawks to make a run, they’ll have to end that slump and figure out how to get the best out of Peterson while keeping everyone engaged. Their first test begins
Friday.
